Monday, April 26, 2010

NBA Payoffs, er... Playoffs

The NBA playoffs are now in full force now and I have again noticed something this year that I cannot figure out. Almost without fail, when there is a series where the team with home court advantage goes up 2-0, (no matter what the matchup is and how good the team with the lead) Game 3 is almost always a blow-out win for the lower seeded team. I would love to see the statistics of what percentage of series the team down 2 games to 0 wins Game 3 by more than 10 points.

Why does this happen? Obviously when you’re down 2-0 in a best of 7 series, Game 3 is pretty much a must win. So… do the players play harder in that game then? Or does the team that is up 2-0 play less hard? I understand that the team down 2-0 now has home court advantage for Game 3. But if you were to go back and look at the regular season, home court advantage wouldn’t normally translate into a blowout win over a superior team.



From watching the playoffs in the past, my best guess would be the conclusion that I really don’t want to come to. Money. Can you imagine how much money the networks, the NBA, the individual teams, and the respective cities themselves would miss out on if the series were shorter? A series that lasts even one game longer could mean hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue when you add in everything that goes into each game: advertising, ticket prices, concessions, souvenirs, hotel rooms, local restaurants and bars, etc.


I’m not saying that there is some conspiracy theory in motion, but what is a better explanation other than that the players of the team behind in the series all of the sudden are able to kick things into another gear and beat the better team so often? And if that’s the case- does that comfort you or frustrate you that the team you love needs to be on the brink of elimination before they have enough motivation to play better? Do shots go in more frequently when you’re almost eliminated from a playoff round? Or if we looked inside the numbers, would we find that the number of foul shots in Game 3 has been statistically more favorable to the team that is behind in the series?

Maybe ignorance is bliss on this subject…

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